What does the TikTok sell-off mean next?

Earlier today, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the proposed TikTok sell-off bill into law. This means that, TikTok now has 270 days to sell to a U.S-based owner or be banned in the nation. TikTok has vowed to fight the bill in the courts, labeling it by TikTok CEO Shou Xi Chew as an unconstitutional attack on the app.
But is it, and what are TikTok's chances of winning a court battle to maintain its Chinese ownership?

Here is a look at some of the questions around the TikTok ban.

Can TikTok defeat the bill via legal means?

Still, this is being hatched at the desk of the U.S. President, as observed by Chew, TikTok's confident that it will defeat the bill in court arguing the proposal is fundamentally unconstitutional.

As seen in TikTok:

I believe that facts and law are on our side, and we're going to win in the end. The point is, we have invested billions of dollars to keep U.S. data safe and our platform free from outside influence and manipulation.

As outlined in Platformer (which has an excellent rundown of the possible outcomes of TikTok's legal options), the government will probably look to defend the bill on grounds of national security, meaning the government gets to retain more powers than technicalities that possibly TikTok would highlight. 

And yet even if the proofs about data misuse and manipulation are not strong enough to win in court, perhaps under the banner of national security, it does seem more likely that the bill will be able to stand scrutiny.

So TikTok could challenge, and quite conceivably defeat in the courts. But do seems like that won't ultimately be a pathway to maintain the situation as is.

For how long till the end for TikTok in the U.S.?

Under the bill, TikTok will now have 270 days to divest, though there's also an additional provision which could see TikTok apply for an extra three months under certain conditions (e.g. if it's negotiating with buyers and needs more time to finalize the deal).

So TikTok has until a year for it to either be in U.S. ownership, or it's gone.

So it won't disappear overnight, and there is still enough time for related parties to work out an alternative outcome for the app.

The biggest catch here that might bar any sell-off from happening is that the Chinese government has vowed to oppose the sell-off push.

Even if TikTok finds a potential partner it likes, it may not be able to enact a sale either way.

Which companies might look to buy TikTok?

I saw someone suggest that Meta will be looking to buy TikTok if it is put up for sale.
Well, for example, no, Meta is not going to purchase TikTok. I mean, the FTC is still trying to make Meta divest WhatsApp and Instagram on the grounds of it giving them an unfair advantage in the digital ads market. So there's no way Meta would be allowed to buy TikTok even if they wanted to.

At that stage, in the previous sweepstakes, the top candidates were Oracle, Microsoft, Walmart, and Triller, all of them in the previous sweepstakes based on the former President Donald Trump's attempt to force the app into U.S. ownership in 2020.
Oracle probably still has an interest in gaining the app and was deeply involved in TikTok's "Project Texas," which was going to address issues concerning U.S. user data being sent to China. Microsoft probably is out of the running, having already heavily invested in OpenAI, and generally moving sharply towards AI projects, and Walmart was only a partial bidder, and probably wouldn't want to make a bid, at least not on its own. And Triller likely wouldn't be in a position to make a bid either.

Last month, reports began surfacing that former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was putting together an investor group to make a buyout bid for the app, while former Activision CEO Bobby Kotick has also reportedly shown interest.

An important provision, though, would be that the algorithm code developed by TikTok shall be included, which the current owner, ByteDance, may be very averse to including in any sale. In fact, it may even be unable to do so, as China's cybersecurity rules contain provisions that might prohibit just this kind of sale.

The real secret sauce is the TikTok algorithm; if that is not part of the deal, then the asking price will be significantly reduced and also the field of potential suitors will shrink.

Will other nations also look to ban the app now?

Well, this presents quite a major concern for TikTok; other nations will now follow the lead of the U.S. and make similar rulings.

Theoretically, if TikTok indeed ends up selling to a U.S. company, most Western countries would seemingly be fine with their user data being stored in the U.S., too as that is the current situation with every other social application. But EU officials have also been pushing for European user data to remain in Europe just like the U.S. does.

It's reminiscent, though not particularly close, of the bans on TikTok on government devices that have spread across Western nations in the past couple of years. Once one nation looks to enact restrictions, others follow suit. Which makes sense, as they're all acting on the same cybersecurity advice, but it could also indicate that other nations may look to institute similar restrictions on TikTok unless it institutes clear delineation between itself and its Chinese homeland.

Essentially, this could be a domino effect, which will see TikTok face more bans, in more regions, as a result.

Do we dial back our focus on TikTok?

This one's really hard to answer, because while TikTok is facing a potential ban, given the money at stake, you would assume that, somehow, someway, an agreement will be enacted to keep the app running in the U.S.

Having a diversified digital strategy is always important, but discussion here once again throws up the truism of not putting all your eggs in one basket. But in this stage, I wouldn't say you should be moving away from TikTok per se, but you probably should be considering how you're using other platforms at the same time.

Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts are obvious beneficiaries, and given the similarities to TikTok, they seem like the best alternatives to consider, even if only through re-posting and building a presence. Snapchat Spotlight could also be considered for each group.
But yes, you should be considering alternatives, though you should always be exploring such either way.
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There's much more to come with the TikTok divestment push, and this may well be a bigger point of contention between the U.S. and China as the battle for the app continues.

Which is awesome to consider: the heart of international relations between two global superpowers is centered on an app that exists almost entirely on upbeat dance clips.

Wild times.