Threads is still popular, at least in terms of overall downloads, the latest data from Appfigures indicates that Threads was the most downloaded app on iOS in October.

Threads come out on top yet again last month, following September's crowning as the number one iOS download. The application has gradually been climbing its rankings since it continued gaining momentum, and it's now at 275 million overall users.

But the downloads don't necessarily translate into users. Some of these will be people who are downloading Threads just to check it out and then going back to X, or Instagram, or whatever other apps they prefer instead. So this may not directly correlate to increased usage momentum as such, though according to Meta's official reporting, Threads did add 100 million more users over the three months leading into October, while last week IG chief Adam Mosseri that Threads had already seen an increase of 15 million more sign-ups in November as well.

Now, so Threads has probably passed 300 million users, and its download rate would indicate that it's going to more than double that before the end of the year.

To put this in perspective, X has more than 500 million monthly actives; hence, threads are still far off but catching up faster than many would have expected.

Of course, many are now reporting that Bluesky could steal away some of the Twitter cast-offs who are looking to jump to another app and put a dent in Threads' growth momentum. Directly comparable, of course, Bluesky is much more Twitter-like, but Threads does seem to carve out its own niche and build a strong community of users on its terms.

Will that see Threads win out in the real-time social app race?

Again, Bluesky is gaining users, but it only has 20 million overall actives, so it's a long way off, and I do think that there's also a level of fatigue setting in that will make it harder for new, similar platforms to gain critical mass.

As such, I expect Bluesky to be more niche than that, loved by tech enthusiasts but not quite as catchy with the general public as Threads.

And then, there is X.

It has reportedly lost users at a massive rate in the wake of the U.S. election, relating to the role that Musk played in President-elect Trump's campaign, although there is no sure shot insight into the issue as of yet. X itself reported record-high usage around the election, and the only people who know the full impact of users shutting down their X accounts are those within X themselves. And the company hasn't reported any updated user stats since July.

There's an outside trend report, for example the chart above from Appfigures, that suggests X is slowing down (X is now ranked 38 in the App Store chart by Appfigures), and the partial data providers have also pointed to X user growth declines.
These, of course, are estimates and only a limited view of whole app activity.

So while it does seem like X is in decline, and Threads is on the way up, the only official data we have is that Threads is still at least 200 million active users away from beating out the app.
And then there's an argument about broader influence, and whether Threads is as relevant or influential as X. Looking ahead, you'd also have to wonder whether the second Trump term is going to make X even more relevant, as Trump used Twitter to communicate virtually all of his policy decisions in his first Presidency. Given his new friendship with Musk, that could see X become a key focus once again, which would ensure that it remains a key platform for some time yet.

While Threads is undeniably trending up, let's not be too quick to write its epitaph. After all, X might not have an easy time taking the throne, and I wouldn't be writing the former bird app's obituary just yet.

But more people are at least trying out Threads. This should be a positive sign for Meta's latest social app.