Tesla is about to break out the much-awaited Robotaxi this Thursday, and everyone is interested in what it will be like, if Tesla is going to reveal a commercialization strategy, and what outrageous timelines Elon Musk may announce to pump up Tesla's stock.

The "We, Robot" event will be held on 7 p.m. PT at Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studio in Burbank, California, and we have all the details on how to watch here.

Musk had earlier announced that he will roll out the Robotaxi-that he also dubs Cybercab-to market on August 8. That is a deadline Musk set for himself and Tesla several hours after the story by Reuters unearthed how the automaker shelved plans to manufacture a significantly cheaper EV and will instead focus on a robotaxi.

While Musk also quickly threw out the charge that Reuters was telling lies, within a couple of weeks, Tesla did indeed downsize 10% of staff to usher in a "next phase of growth," and Musk said Tesla would be going "balls to the wall for autonomy."

Tesla never really met Musk's deadlines, but was supposed to in this case as this Robotaxi event ultimately had to be rescheduled to October after Musk asked for an important design change to the front.

Investors that bet on Tesla's vision for autonomy are waiting for Tesla to finally announce a Robotaxi. The timing, however, might not be so good. Tesla's margins have taken a big hit over the last year or so due to ramped-up Cybertruck production and many other factors. Its third-quarter deliveries were somewhat disappointing, and Tesla has had its fifth Cybertruck recall in less than a year from when it launched the vehicle.

A new vehicle will mean more investment in the production lines, factory downtime, and other costly issues investors don't like to hear about.

Whether it's all hype or at least some substance, we'll soon see. But here's what we expect to see.

A Cybercab prototype
Of course, the focus would be a prototype to represent a newly conceptualized vehicle-the first from Tesla since it unveiled the Cybertruck way back in November last year.

The version Musk called the Cybercab may finally confirm the design concept unveiled last year in Walter Isaacson's biography of the executive—a two-door, two-seat, Cybertruck-like compact vehicle, complete with angular edges and a stainless steel finish.

The car will likely be built to lack a steering wheel or pedals as well. Although there have been Tesla engineers who have pushed against this on day one, Musk has insisted, Isaacson's book recounts, that he wants to introduce the market to a purpose-built vehicle.

It also has the problem of potential regulatory issues in that design choice, which does not meet federal motor safety standards; we partly expect Musk to draw on that to explain why it will be challenging to get the Cybercab to market.

Smoke and mirrors
A studio choice like Hollywood represents a step-change, as Tesla normally hosts its big reveal events at one of its facilities, and signals that Elon Musk is keen to show off his showmanship.

The studio is open to tours, so visitors-who are mostly Tesla shareholders and superfans-will get the chance to be dazzled by the sets of Batman, Friends, Gilmore Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Harry Potter, and other titles.

It also grants Tesla the use of enormous sound stages and sets, some of which are replicas of a piece of suburbia and even a tiny downtown area. It may prove to be the perfect test location where Tesla can demonstrate its Cybercab in the act of autonomous driving-it's an enclosed and controlled location with no other traffic where the car can be permitted to self-drive at low speed.

We think that demo could be the ride-hailing app teased by Tesla in its first-quarter earnings call in April. Other auto and product announcements
The theme of the conference, "We, Robot," is a play on Isaac Asimov's science fiction series of short stories, "I, Robot," which delves into the relationship between humans and robots. Hence, the conference may include updates on Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot. It does not, however set aside that three laws of robotics govern Asimov's stories – laws that look at the safety of humans first  : a robot may not injure a human being or through inaction, allow a human to come to harm  ; a robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law  ; a robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First and Second Laws. Those all fit neatly into autonomous driving. Deepwater Asset Management says in addition to a Cybercab prototype, Tesla will show previews (but not a prototype) of the $25,000 EV, which fans are calling the Model 2. Analyst Gene Munster and Brian Baker said that Model 2 should bear a likeness and appearance similar to the Cybercab, likely based on Tesla's past comments that the two would share a vehicle platform.

The company also thinks Tesla will detail more of a Cybervan, a fully self-driving passenger van that may one day support public transportation. Perhaps from an investor presentation Tesla will give in March of 2023, which included an inventory of Tesla current and future cars, but for sure had a teaser of the car being something of a van.

Some potential wildcards

While it is very different to build a robotaxi versus commercialize one, many people may hail a ride in Tesla's cars-the company, at large -but not make the switch to a service that is likely to be less reliable at launch.
One wildcard prediction we have is that Tesla could announce a partnership with Uber, which has proven its existing global ride-hail platform to be attractive to autonomous vehicle companies. Uber's been signing on AV companies at a fast clip over the last few weeks, including Waymo, Cruise, Wayve, and more. While Musk seems to want to go it alone, partnering might be the best way to actually commercialize these vehicles.

Another potential wildcard is that McDonald's is somehow involved here, based on an X post from the fast-food chain last week that said, "chat's about to pop off 10.10." Musk replied with the laugh-crying emoji, so we might expect to see some kind of autonomous food delivery demo or announcement with McDonald's on Thursday.

What we don't expect to see

Much ado and chatter will be made about Musk's vision for an autonomous future, during which the executive likely will make the same argument that Uber made a decade ago about the possibilities of shared rides: It will be so easy and inexpensive to hail an AV that people won't need to own a car of their own.
A rosy picture, but one we don't expect to be supported Thursday with a clear path toward commercialization.

In the past, Musk has said Tesla vehicles on the roads today would be able to progress to autonomy with merely a software update, and allow owners to add their cars to Tesla's ride-sharing app and rent them out to make some extra cash.

Tesla said it would take something like 25% to 30% of the revenue from those rides, and in locations where people are few to pool around cars, the automaker would offer a dedicated fleet of robotaxis. Now, Musk has been talking about offering a completely autonomous Tesla for several years now, but still no dice. While its much-promoted driver assistance system dubbed Full Self-Driving has advanced much in Tesla, it is far from being fully self-driving-it still requires a human driver behind the wheel and alert to step in at a moment's notice.

This might be why Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who is certainly a Tesla bull, said he expects Tesla will offer a " 'dual' approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing." There will be a 'supervised' autonomous/FSD rideshare service, and a fully autonomous app-based Cybercab, he said, with an expected initial commercial launch slated for late 2025 or 2026.

Indeed, in terms of the Cybercabs themselves, Deepwater analysts note this lag between unveiling products and ramping up. The minimum gap was 10 months in the case of the Model Y. In the case of the Cybertruck it has taken 48 months, the Semi so far 79 and running: Tesla delivered a handful of Semis late in December 2022, but has yet to ramp up to volume production.

That would mean that the production for any of the announced vehicles back in August could start only in June 2025 at the earliest, Deepwater wrote. 

And if the robotaxi event was pushed back so Tesla could "make some important changes," then the product is still likely to be a long way from being ready to go into production.