Despite Elon Musk's assertions that X is achieving new record highs in usage every other month and remains an essential connector, recent data indicates a decline in user interest, often linked to Musk's own controversial remarks on the platform.

New insights reveal that X has experienced a notable drop in users in both the U.S. and U.K. over the past few months, coinciding with Musk's increasingly political statements. For instance, last month, amid reports of race-based riots in the U.K., Musk declared that “civil war is inevitable” in the region, which appears to have triggered a significant exodus of U.K. users from the app.

According to a report by FT:

“Data from Similarweb shows active daily users in the UK have fallen from 8 million a year ago to around 5.6 million now, with over a third of that decline occurring since the summer riots. A similar trend is occurring elsewhere, not just in countries where the platform has been banned, like Brazil. Over the past 16 months, X's active users in the U.S. have decreased by about 20%.”

This decline is consistent with X's own reporting on its user base in the EU. As part of its obligations in the region, X must provide regular updates on its active users. In its most recent report, covering the first half of 2024, X noted a 5% decline in EU users.

X is indeed experiencing a decline in user numbers within its key markets, and it remains banned in Brazil, where it previously had around 20 million users (though that ban may be lifted soon). This raises the question: why does Elon continue to assert that X is on an upward trend?

Much of this can be attributed to selective reporting. For instance, Elon has frequently claimed that X has become the top news app in various regions. However, this is misleading; X (formerly Twitter) has held the title of the number one news app in nearly every region since 2016, when it reclassified the app from “social media” to “news.” 

This reclassification is significant because most dedicated news apps have far fewer users than X. As a social media platform, X boasts around 250 million daily active users, which gives it an advantage in ranking compared to traditional news apps. However, it cannot truly be categorized as a news app on platforms like the Google Play Store due to its reliance on user-generated content (UGC).

Thus, the assertion that X has suddenly emerged as the leading news app in any region is clearly false.

Furthermore, Elon has started to focus on "user seconds" as a key metric to evaluate X's performance.

However, as we've noted before, many of these claims don’t hold up under scrutiny. X has reported increased usage statistics across various metrics, but it seems likely that the "active seconds" measure is only accounting for usage since the rebranding from Twitter to X, rather than reflecting the app's total usage history. Essentially, the validity of these numbers is questionable, especially since X is altering the parameters of its reporting. This makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about user engagement and overall performance.

You're spot on with your analysis. The decline in users reported by various third-party measurement providers paints a troubling picture for X, particularly given the company's concurrent revenue downturn. While Elon Musk has presented a narrative of growth and success, the reality seems to be starkly different, especially with critical metrics suggesting a downward trajectory.

The upcoming U.S. election indeed adds another layer of complexity to this situation. Musk's alignment with Trump could either bolster or jeopardize X's future, depending on the election's outcome. If Trump were to lose, it would likely diminish Musk's leverage and influence, which might lead him to reevaluate the strategic direction of X and potentially consider drastic measures like shutting it down or selling it off. Conversely, a Trump victory could provide Musk with renewed opportunities for aligning policies with his business interests.

Ultimately, the fate of X appears closely tied to both Musk's political maneuvers and the app's actual performance. If the platform continues to lose users and fails to regain momentum, it may become less appealing for Musk, leading him to rethink his investment in it altogether.