There has been a lot of speculation this week about a significant decline in X's usage following Elon Musk's recent comments regarding race riots in the U.K. The prevailing sentiment, based on anecdotal evidence, is that many users are leaving X and migrating to Threads. However, X owner Elon Musk claims that the platform achieved a new record high in active user engagement this week.

So, what’s the reality? Is X truly losing ground due to Musk's remarks, or is it thriving under his broader push for free speech?

There are a few key points to consider.

First, as reported by TechCrunch, all available external data indicates that X hasn’t experienced a significant decline in usage.

According to TechCrunch:

“App intelligence provider Sensor Tower estimated that X’s average daily active users worldwide grew by 2% from July to August 2024, while website traffic provider Similarweb reported that X is experiencing daily and weekly fluctuations in engagement that fall within the normal range for web and mobile apps.”

Thus, there is no clear evidence from third-party analysis platforms to suggest that X is facing any backlash at this point. However, David Carr from SimilarWeb did note on LinkedIn that Threads usage reached new highs in the U.K. this week, while X has seen a gradual decline over time.

However, in keeping with the overall trends, the shift isn't significant. That said, there was another crucial factor that likely contributed to X’s numbers remaining strong last week.

On Tuesday, X announced that the 2024 Olympic Games generated record-high engagement levels within the app.

Considering the insights from Sensor Tower and SimilarWeb, which both reported minimal changes in X’s usage, it’s possible that X did experience a decline. However, the high engagement surrounding the Olympics might have effectively masked that drop. This suggests that while X could still face a decline in the coming weeks, Elon Musk has stated that the platform achieved a new record high in active user engagement this week.

This spike is likely attributed to Musk's X Spaces interview with former President Donald Trump, which garnered significant attention on Wednesday.

Despite criticism of Musk’s “active user seconds” metric (including from me), it may actually make sense in the context of how Twitter has historically measured engagement.

As a former Twitter employee recently explained to social media expert Matt Navarra, the metrics for active seconds and minutes that Twitter used to employ differ significantly, with Twitter counting any seconds spent within a minute as a full minute of activity.

“So a user could be on X for just 5 seconds, and it would be counted as an active minute because they were engaged during that time.”

If this practice continues at X, then the “active user seconds” metric could indeed be a more accurate measure of engagement, as X has claimed. 

This could suggest that X is experiencing increased usage. However, the platform has been stuck at around 250 million daily active users since November 2022, indicating that an increase in active seconds primarily reflects that existing users are spending more time on the app rather than X expanding its user base.

Moreover, it would be challenging for X to sustain those active seconds if more users are leaving the platform. 

The real concern for X lies with creators and the number of people actively posting on the app. X has previously indicated that only 20% of its users ever post content or engage with posts, while the majority simply check their feeds. Over time, an increasing number of publishers have ceased posting on X. As more active users depart, the platform risks losing its relevance. X relies heavily on a core group of about 50 million users, making it vulnerable to significant shifts if any of these engaged communities leave.

Currently, this mass exodus doesn’t seem to be occurring, largely due to the strong presence of sports fandoms on the platform—hence the heightened engagement during the Olympics. However, any user migration could still have serious consequences for X, given that the app's viability hinges on a small fraction of its user base.

This is likely where Threads is focusing its efforts. The app has already begun incorporating live sports scores and is likely engaging with major influencers still active on X to persuade them of the benefits of switching to Threads.

Despite this, Threads still trails behind X in real-time engagement, as its algorithm prioritizes light-hearted content over news and politics. Consequently, X continues to dominate in delivering timely political and sports updates, which are essential for users seeking the latest information. It’s doubtful that Threads can maintain its stance against news if it truly aims to compete with X; for now, it appears to be sticking with its approach to foster a more positive experience than X.

But will this strategy be effective? 

Perhaps, in the long run. Currently, the so-called “Threads migration” shows only gradual usage declines for X and slightly larger gains for Threads. While adding a few thousand users weekly is a positive sign, X remains approximately six times more popular than Threads, meaning a significant takeover by Threads will take a considerable amount of time.

However, given X’s financial challenges, the situation may change quickly. If Elon Musk and his team cannot devise a way to generate more revenue, Threads may ultimately prevail as X fades away. 

Actually, considering Musk's approach, it won’t merely fade; it will likely go down spectacularly. Nonetheless, I anticipate that following the U.S. election, X will face a critical moment of reckoning, with the sitting President potentially influencing its future direction.

For now, though, no, X is not in massive decline, and no, Threads is not experiencing significant growth. Yet, there is a consistent, albeit small, trend that could indicate opportunities for Meta's platform.