Is It Cake? No, It’s Netflix’s Declining Subscriber Numbers

Netflix practically admitted yesterday with the earnings call that there is some rough competition out there, and Netflix needs to up its game. Revenue and subscriber growth have clearly slowed down, and content just isn't hitting the mark.
Is It Cake? No, It’s Netflix’s Declining Subscriber Numbers

Netflix practically admitted yesterday with the earnings call that there is some rough competition out there, and Netflix needs to up its game. Revenue and subscriber growth have clearly slowed down, and content just isn't hitting the mark.

The company acknowledges this need for improvement. Ted Sarandos, co-chief executive officer and chief content officer, Netflix, said, “Honestly, we’ve got to compete, and we’ve got to continue to improve on the core service, which is making TV series and films and now games that people really love.”

Movies with big names like "Red Notice," starring Gal Gadot, Ryan Reynolds and Dwayne the Rock Johnson have flashy action sequences and expensive-looking props, but it wasn't enough to win an Oscar, let alone satisfy subscribers. It's also alarming that Netflix continues to burn time and money on these big films. "Red Notice" cost $200 million to make and only has a 36% on Rotten Tomatoes… yikes. One of the priciest movies Netflix has produced to date, "The Irishman" ranks second with a $150 million price tag.
Quality is not the same as expensive, though, and Netflix does not have to be so lavish with their content if they do not need to be.

Look at how Apple TV+'s small-budget "CODA" got in all the way to Best Picture with a sub-$10 million price tag. If something as simple and sweet as "CODA" could win it all without relying on famous casts and expensive movie sets, then note it. If Netflix continues to focus more on getting high-profile cast members rather than a quality narrative and content, forget about staying ahead in the game.

On the earnings call, Sarandos admitted that it does not have enough hits coming often enough.

“…We were not happy with the top-line subscriber growth,” he said. “We have to have an ‘Adam Project’ and a ‘Bridgerton’ every month and to make sure that that’s the expectation of the service constantly. So we’re definitely feeling the higher levels of penetration in those markets of users, and we’re definitely feeling a heightened level of competition for sure.”

Choosing this strategy of pushing out hits every month could be overambitious, even for a veteran like Netflix.

While Sarandos added that the company will continue to invest in quality content and bring more variety to the table, if they continue with the strategy they have now — we aren't quite sure if this will pan out the way they hope. There is some utility in pacing shows, as other streamers are learning, in order to get audiences to keep tuning in each week, rather than bingeing and then leaving. "Game of Thrones" famously did this for HBO, but now it's just the expectation for all manner of popular series across services.

And while Shonda Rhimes was a great hire for Netflix, bringing in valuable shows like "Bridgerton," which has tallied an 82 million-household viewership in its first 28 days, it could have served Netflix better if it were doled out more slowly. "Inventing Anna," with 3.3 billion minutes watched for the week of February 14, per Nielsen, could also have used a little more wait time.

However, there are several other decisions made by Netflix that did not go exactly as expected.

The unscripted series "Is It Cake?" from Netflix was a miss, garnering a low audience score of 41% on Rotten Tomatoes. The streamer latched onto a trending online meme where cakes look like objects, arguably overdone, and rolled with it hoping it will bring more subscriber growth. The show is also too similar to its other wild and experimental cooking titles like "Best Leftovers Ever!," "Cooked with Cannabis" and "Nailed it.

Another show that is fun and did really well was "Love is Blind," which, also now, in the context of the online dating scene with millennials and Gen Z, was very well received. The week of February 14, Nielsen said that "Love is Blind" had over 1.4 billion minutes of viewing time. But Netflix already has an overwhelming amount of dating shows, such as "The Circle," "Too Hot to Handle," "Love on the Spectrum," and so on. So the newly debuted program "The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On" predictably tanked, with an audience score of just 12% on Rotten Tomatoes.

The issue is this: because one show works does not necessarily mean many others like it are something viewers need. This is a formula-based programming approach that feels a little too reliant on algorithms in their process. Making the greenlight decision requires a human touch.

The company could, if they focused more on acquiring carefully curated titles rather than throwing money at big names and the next big trend, rise again.

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2024-11-25 20:06:47